Probability of Absorption

If in a given area 100 residential properties sold last year

• 60 were to homeowners, i.e. 60%
• 20 to condo developers, i.e. 20% and
• 10 to investors, i.e. 10% and
• 10 did not sell, i.e. 10%.

then the probability that the next property sold would be to a

• homeowner is p(1)=60%
• a condo developer is p(2)=20%
• an investor is p(3)=10%
• and would not sell is p(4)=10%.